pull rate rayquaza goldstar ex deoxys vs charizard 1st base

Why are you so emotionally invested in this, though? There are plenty of low tier trophy cards and rare promos that “”“should”"" be worth way more than a PSA 10 ulimited Base holo, but aren’t. So what? Why not act on the opportunity and just buy them instead of rambling here?

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Like which ones? *Greed intensifies*

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well could you just objectively answer me one of my questions or tell me clearly why it’s bullshit instead of dodging them and argueing about my emotions about these cards, could you?

i thought that’s what this forum is about… i feel like some people here just accept everything how it is and don’t give a fuck about the things behind it, either they don’t care or they don’t know anything about it.

I just want you to help feeling less angry about things you can’t change. Just accepting certain things that are out of my influence has actually helped me reaching a more peaceful state of mind. I’m not even saying you’re entirely wrong. Publicity and “hype” do create situations in which the market doesn’t make sense. But it’s not worth it being upset about it. Just keep doing your thing and focus on your goals.

But, to at least objectively answer one of your questions:

Maybe the buyer pool for the Zard is only 6x as big, but the people in this market have on average 4x as much money to spend as the people that are chasing the Ray. Not entriely sure if my math is correct here, but I hope you get my point.

In any case, nothing to be angry about.

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Gen 1 vs gen 3, that is why. Gen 1 is and always will be more popular than gen 3. 1st ed charizard is one of the most important cards in the hobby and for some even the number 1. Rayquaza gold star is a very cool card and may be the number 1 of gen 3, but is not even close to the zard. If you do not want to accept that I suggest paying 500k for the rayquaza gold star, there is probably someone who would want to sell for that.

The market does not care about you

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The reason no one answers this question is because no one can possibly know. I don´t think that the charizard price is hype driven, it was the most valuable set card WAY before any hype was even in sight. Yet Rayquaza was still a fraction of it. Rayquaza increased in price nearly as much as the Charizard during the “Logan Paul hype”.

You are totally right that supply is a determining factor, but we can´t judge a cards price just off of its supply.

edit: Btw, the right topic to discuss this is: www.elitefourum.com/t/the-giant-english-market-thread/27424/1

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you have 7 posts and you’re dissing everyone else while they are trying to help you by being patient and explaining why literally the number one card in this hobby is worth more than a cool looking gen 3 card…nice

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see, good answer, that might be a possible case!

yo btw i ain’t angry lol, i got both of these cards, why should i be angry haha. i’m just wondering what legitimates the value spread between these two because i don’t think it should be that high or it will be less in the future.

cheers

nah, jokes aside, i rather see the charizard going down to 100k than the ray going up to 500k, let’s be realistic here.

no need to copy someone else’s quote, i never said anything that would justify this sentence towards me.

no one needs to know the answer, some good arguments are enough for me. i say the charizard price is definitely hype driven, but not 100% of it, obviously the card would’ve gone up in value anyways, but just not as much as with the specific hype for this card, that’s what i’m saying.
i still know that the ray also increased in price, every card increased in price, but as mentioned before. people weren’t aware of the ray as much as the charizard earlier, and people started to realize the value that it holds - everyone knew the value of the charizard when the goldstar ray was still a “nobody”.
nah i never said we can only judge the card by its supply, but supply is a safer factor than demand regarding old valuable cards. when the overall demand in the market drops, the supply is the key factor that determines value.
i might be new to the forum, but i’m neither new to the hobby nor am i dumb… please, some other people here need to keep that in mind…
thanks for the link!
cheers

yes @thymeee , i’m pretty sure i’m not dumb, looking back at certain things i achieved in my life, you can post your deleted comment again, i don’t mind…

i’m not trying to “diss” anyone lol, sorry if if feels like that, nobody said “the number one card” should be worth less than “a cool looking gen 3 card”… come on

I belive Logan did not open a Ex Deoxys box is because, the chance of getting a Ray is very slim, and then there is not very many realy pop cards in the set, so no real show then.

Allmost everybody opening a Base will get a Char i belive

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Here’s my input, as some who exclusively collects Gen 3 and who much prefers Ray to Zard:

1st Ed. Base Set Charizard is a much more significant card than Rayquaza gold star. It’s from the first English TCG release and is the original iconic chase card. Rayquaza gold star is not nearly as iconic or significant to the hobby.

In addition, the average person buying 1st Ed. Base Charizard is older than the average person buying Rayquaza gold star. So the buyer pool for the Zard has more discretionary income than the buyer pool for the Ray.

It makes complete sense that the Charizard is a significantly more expensive card. There are plenty of rarer cards than 1st Edition Base Charizard, but there are none that have the importance or demand.

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cool, thanks. we’re getting there.

last question then: when the charizard is the THE most iconic card in the hobby and the most sought after card, why are many mid-high end trophy cards worth (much) more? cards that nobody ever had as a child and many don’t even know about their existance? why does supply and rarity matter there when demand is so much lower compared to the charizard’s?

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What’s an example of such a card? The only example I can think of is Pikachu Illustrator.

For the exact reason you stated earlier in the thread:

Pikachu Illustrator is a much rarer card. Not a little bit rarer, but like 1000x rarer. Even though the demand for Pikachu Illustrator is much lower than the demand for 1st Ed. Base Zard, the Illustrator is worth more because it’s that much rarer.

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Because it is an entirely different segment of the market. The Ray is, like the Zard, a set card.
High-end trophies have a different buyer pool, they´re mostly disconnected from set card prices as they rely on different fundamentals (historical significance, known print numbers, etc etc.)
There´s not that many trophies that can rival/Our honorable president a PSA 10 1st Zard in terms of price, but here lies the answer. You collect condition for set cards, you collect absolute rarity for trophies. A PSA 8 zard would get blown out of the water by any mid-tier trophy.

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This needs to be pinned somewhere.

People get their panties in a bunch when they see PSA 10 set cards selling for 10x the PSA 9 price. But the reality is that there are way fewer PSA 10-quality vintage holos than PSA 9-quality vintage holos. Whether or not PSA is a good judge at distinguishing between 9s and 10s is a different question, but being in gem mint condition matters a ton for set cards where 99% of the copies in existence aren’t in that condition (aka any WotC/EX holos).

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@zorloth , i was rather thinking of the trophy kangaskhan for example… theoretically, the card itself in psa10 is only around 10x rarer than the charizard whilst the charizard is 100+x more wanted, but “worth more”.

i compare psa copies to psa copies directly in this case because the two cards are similar popular to get graded, if you understand what i mean. the zard has so many copies but is very known and iconic so almost everyone sends it in and the trophy kangaskhan is very limited and probably unknown for most but everyone who has it sends it in, so we assume that almost every (gradable) copy of both cards were sent in and were reviewed by psa. so in the end, we get a new type of rarity (psa 10 rarity) for the two totally different cards that is more or less directly comparable, now that we have the (psa10) supply, we can apply the demand-factor. kangaskhan 10x rarer in terms of supply, but 100x less rare in terms of demand → kangaskhan 10x less valuable than charizard.
this is only possible for cards that 90%+ of all gradable copies are sent in, so it wouldn’t be possible to compare a psa10 pop1 alolan diglett from 2019 to a psa10 pop122 charizard. i hope this is understandable.

well, this is deep into market analysis… probably there isn’t even an answer for that unless we have some more or less reliable numbers…

makes sense, different market segment, different buyers. still, i tried to explain something in my previous post… well maybe this whole discussion should just end here as it is impossible to say anything 100% safe about it, unless we have any of these rough numbers that determine value.