The reason no one answers this question is because no one can possibly know. I don´t think that the charizard price is hype driven, it was the most valuable set card WAY before any hype was even in sight. Yet Rayquaza was still a fraction of it. Rayquaza increased in price nearly as much as the Charizard during the “Logan Paul hype”.
You are totally right that supply is a determining factor, but we can´t judge a cards price just off of its supply.