HGSS02 LUGIA-HOLO
I’ve got a limited-time opportunity to buy a 2010 HeartGold & SoulSilver HGSS02 Lugia Holo Promo PSA 9, but I’m really struggling to work out what a fair value actually is.
About a month ago, PSA 9 sales seemed to be sitting around $1,800–$2,000 USD, which made the card fairly straightforward to value.
However, the recent Card Ladder sales history has suddenly gotten pretty crazy:
- PSA 9 — $8,420.69 USD on Sep 24
- PSA 8 — $4,420.69 USD on Sep 24
- PSA 9 — $2,749 USD on Sep 25
- PSA 7 — $1,025 USD on Sep 27
For comparison, there were PSA 9 sales only about a month earlier at $1,862, $1,999 and around $1,600 USD, and a PSA 8 at $420.
So either this card has suddenly had a massive price movement, or some of these recent sales aren’t representative of the real market. The matching $8,420.69 PSA 9 / $4,420.69 PSA 8 sales in particular look unusual to me.
I’m not sure whether these could be shilled/unpaid sales, incorrectly recorded Best Offers, or if the card has genuinely jumped that much. I’m also not sure how reliable Card Ladder is when it comes to displaying the actual accepted price on eBay Best Offer sales.
The seller is offering me a PSA 9 and I only have a limited amount of time to make a decision. I’m interested in the card, but I really don’t want to pay based on an $8k comp if that sale isn’t legitimate, while at the same time I don’t want to completely ignore the recent movement if the market genuinely has changed.
How would you guys value the PSA 9 right now? Would you still anchor it closer to the ~$2k sales, give significant weight to the newer sales, or wait until another confirmed sale establishes the market?
Also, does anyone know how reliable Card Ladder is with eBay Best Offer prices and whether there’s a good way to verify whether these specific sales actually completed?
Any advice ASAP would be hugely appreciated since I have a pretty small window to decide whether to buy it.
I’ve attached screenshots of the card and the recent Card Ladder sales for reference.
