If there are only a few copies of each card, having them marked would be even more significant than marking an illustrator. It would be like marking a historical (almost mythical) relic.
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Almost certainly there were more than 5 copies of each playtest card. Just look at my equation, realistically there could be 20-100 or even more of each card depending on how many playtesters there were at the time, how many decks they had going at once, etc.
But did most of these survive to this day? No idea. Did other people involved in the process keep copies? Unclear. Would they sell? Who knows.
I’m not saying there are only 5 each. I’m saying, for practicality purposes, it would not be a bad idea to proceed as if there would only be 5 to hit the market. If it turns out there are only a handful to ever make it to the market then the assumption works out. On the other hand, if 100 copies of each hit the market over time… well it’s unfortunate but you still have the copy you want at a price you were willing to pay. On the other hand, if you assume 100 copies and you wait for the price to continue to drop, I’m going to say the most likely scenario is you don’t ever end up with one. All this analysis assumes you’re looking to acquire one in the first place, of course.
re: the mounting Pokemon Card Prototype Discussion Thread - #134 by pfm
Ultimately I think you are overthinking this a bit too much, especially with respect to the psychology of people who have ones vs people who don’t. You are working with incomplete information, you just simply have to make the best choice for you based on the information you have today.
ps. I don’t own a copy. I’m just sharing how I’m also thinking about this. At the right price I would pick up a couple
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I definitely would like one, I bid a lot at goldin auction a couple weeks back. I am being more reserved now, due to uncertainties with the supply. If they provided solid evidence there was only 5 copies of each card, I would be making sure to buy one as soon as possible.
I do not want to miss out on buying one of these, but at the same time I don’t want to pay a lot of money only for more supply to come on the market. I have weighed up the odds and decided to be patient. With the sales yesterday it seems the price are starting to go down from the initial sales. So far the plan of patience seems to be working, but if the supply dries up I could miss out for sure. At the moment it seems several cards are hitting the market most days and there are some coming up at heritage.
For the holders, if they have evidence that the supply is small I would make a recommendation to release this information. They will benefit from this with more eager buyers.
Thank you for being open about this, that is fair of you and I am sorry to assume. I am the first to say if the supply is small, I would pay a good amount for one.
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I would argue that the pressure on the price is not due to each card having many copies, but that fact that the total number of cards across all species and the velocity they are being listed is hampering the price. I don’t see that lasting once the primary source is out of copies.
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Yeah if the supply dries up the only way is up (unless the cards come into question somehow).
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A lot of the ones on goldin and fanatics right now are at 1200 or under. If they stay there, they get very tempting
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Absolutely - if these are real which we don’t know. That’s my issue. Do you believe what’s been released enough to say they’re real? I just don’t think we’re there yet. I worry about getting excited over something that turns out to be one big fraud. The cool factor, for me, is massive. But so is Bigfoot. I wonder if we could take a poll to see where E4 currently stands on authenticity.
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It’s not something I’m hung up on at all.
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We know these iterative prototype existed. They are documented in magazines like Corocoro. We have seen them posted by Akabane on his old account.
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We know these came from Akabane. If you don’t agree with that, I think it’s more than fair to say there’s no reason to have reasonable doubt that they came from him.
So given this information, one of the following should be true.
- Akabane photoshopped these from scratch and produced them to sell.
- Akabane had the original MS Word document with them, printed fresh copies to sell.
- Akabane still had real copies, sold them.
Frankly, the first option is pretty absurd. The guy sat down and made a bunch of fake images, downsampled the Sugimori art, added typos, annotated some of them? It’s just silly to think.
Option 2 and 3 are far more probable. However, in either scenario, the cards are accurately representing what the development cycle looked like.
Am I making sense? I would love to hear an alternative theory about how the layout of these cards is fraudulent, given the two assumptions I laid out at the top
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If you can get one for under 1200 I think that is a good calculated risk depending on your budget. If massive supply dumps the price, you have only bought one and how much lower could it go? And if the supply dries up you at least have one.
I am confident enough that they are old and authentic to buy them, but could I say 100 percent? Not exactly, but that is the same for any card really. The thing about the actual cards I would want clarification about the most is the context of ‘mounted on card’ (i.e specifically when).
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Hmmm, funny idea that this made me think of. Could there be a potential of production process cards that were mocked up for the Creatures Anniversary deck? Essentially that these would be reproductions made to show the processes that they originally went through when developing and that some amount were made for display from original files until they went a different direction with the Creatures deck and included the Chansey prototype. I know its a stretch of an idea but something not straight forward would explain why these are all in such great condition despite being “playtest” cards and why there are so many duplicates.
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All of the BIN alpha and beta mounted on cards have been removed from eBay and Alt other than 3 of the listings. Do we know if this is due to: (1) a buyout, (2) mass influx of auctions, or (3) something scandalous?
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they’re more than likely just getting shipped out to auction
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I’m almost certainly going to pick up one up (likely beta), if the price is really right lol
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Looks like you were right, the pop is 95 again.
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rares on rares so it becomes a bigger stonk 
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Where are these cards headed given the ~150 BIN listings were removed?
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I thought it was still in question whether that IG account was actually Akabane or a fake account.
Option 2 and 3 are far more probable. However, in either scenario, the cards are accurately representing what the development cycle looked like.
Am I making sense?
You are making sense, yes. I think it’s #2 that he printed them off recently and put them on old Japanese backs. It’s cool but the hush hush of it bothers me. I can’t think of any healthy or rational reason to unveil it in the shady-a** way they did, that’s all.
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If it’s actually option 2, then how is that any different from the custom cards on Etsy? It’s not an actual prototype produced during that era for the purpose of play testing and refining the game. It’d be something made for the intent of selling it to collectors and making money. I don’t know if other people would care, but that makes it a lot less interesting to me.
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The most recent account is in question. I believe pfm is referring to the previous account
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Shady as hell!
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