Here is a question. I know wizards produced a ton of base, jungle, fossil and rocket in unlimited and even 1st edition besides base set.
I belive they produced so much that YouTubers/streamers will not face a shortage of boxes to open/sell.
But the question i have is how about base 1st edition and base shadowless? I believe those two were produced in really limited quantities. But again I do not know. I’ll let the more experienced collectors answer that one.
We have gotten to a point where in mtg finding an alpha, beta or even unlimited box is basically nonexistent and even a pack of one of those three sets is very difficult. In 10-20 years do you see the same happening to 1st ed and shadowless base?
That’s true. But those were produced by Nintendo and not many collectors who don’t know Pokémon are too familiar with those sets.
Interestingly enough the last pack of cards I bought before I left Pokémon was a fire red/leaf green because it went with the remakes of red/green for the game oh advance.
Ah good point. I did not know reserved list has increased that much. I’m largely ignorant of reserved list prices, I mostly stick to current and newer card prices, and a few older card staples for EDH. The thing is though, does PkMn compare to MtG through the lens of a reserve list? Does it have a reserved list?
What do you think? We have to look at the card franchises a whole, and the top performers from them, as well as the top performers in comparable categories like event promos, etc. We can only simply say, these top PkMn cards do this, and these top MtG cards do this, IFF (If and Only If) those cards have similar histories and releases.
So, Is there a reserved list comparison in PkMn? If so, then you have a point. If not, then it’s not something that really can be used to compare PkMn to Magic and vice versa.
edit: I’m not saying there aren’t any parallels, but the two did NOT behave the same during of after covid. Which makes sense, as the companies have very different approaches.
I think it’s fairly well attested that 1st Ed Base & Shadowless are much rarer than most other early WOTC sets. Even the distribution range was fairly limited back in 1999. Base Unlimted and then Jungle/Fossil releases were all much wider distributions and you can find the sealed stuff much easier. I’ve read that there could be as few as a few hundred or less 1st Ed Base Booster boxes left unopened at this point. Shadowless booster boxes appear even more rare, but it’s hard to tell exactly.
So overall, I would say there’s still more 1st Ed Base/Shadowless sealed left in the world than early MTG product. But it’s still getting tough to come by.
With WOTC the later Neo and E-Reader stuff is also very low supply (1st Ed Neo Destiny, Skyridge, etc) or at least appears to be based off what you can find for sale or in auctions.
I am 32. and I think about building a psa 9 collection of first edition base set constantly. If the prices dropped 40-50% from where they are today, I would insta buy. I own a nice amount of sealed shadowless boosters and a few other wotc heavy packs. It sounds impossible for the price to drop very much to me, as I know for myself, I am dying to accumulate more. Something I havent seen people mention here that I think thats very obvious is, when crypto enters the next bull cycle (roughly 6-12 months out) alot of young people are going to start getting very rich again, and they will start dumping their insane gains into pokemon. I saw alot of this on crypto twitter, and I see a few people still slowly buying 1st ed wotc today. I my self dropped like 20k usd with crypto gains. and I will likely do the same next bullrun. there is not much supply of psa 10 first edition base or shadowless.
I think 1st edition WOTC cards and early EX era cards will continue to grow slowly for the next 10-20 years, with one or two big upswings mixed in. I feel like at the 20 year mark we might start to see some stagnation and decline. I’d welcome the decline as I’ll be collecting either way!
In the 20 year range I see mass produced modern cards being viewed in a similar way to junk wax era sports cards. The numbers just don’t align with growth over time in my mind, but maybe demand really will continue to grow or at least stay consistent.
A bit late to the party, but I think it will largely come down to how well organic demand retains and absorbs supply. The original generation of pokemon fans are a core part of the hobby supporting the market (mainly because they have the disposable income to do so). Hopefully, later generations will continue to support the hobby in the same way as they enter the job force. But, people’s attitudes and perceptions change over time. Who knows?
My biggest fear is a mass sell-off as today’s current enthusiasts lose interest or decide to cash out. I’ve heard people recommend selling entire collections at the 30th, or 50th anniversary. Even if only 20% of collectors sell off their collections as they begin to retire, its still signifigant.
Overall, a small proportion of Iconic cards will stay strong for generations to come.
Older, Rarer, Minter = Better
Don’t think massive cash out will ever happen, unless entire population of pokemon fans begin to die out due to old age, meaning there’re no more newborn youngsters to replace them as fans.
Or entire pokemon fans community gets abducted by aliens or worldwide governments ban pokemon cards.
