So, the reason we can say this is because when trying to understand market volatility we have to look at many many factors and one is investor/interest/collector psychology for collectibles.
I am mostly interested in the short term speculative investor. I am not concerned with the long term collector/investor. They were buying before the volatile market and will be buying after.
Everyone who entered during that time, who were trying to make a quick buck, those are the ones I am focusing on and am concerned for. They will be impacted greatly, and in my opinion a large portion of the community was brought in by fake collectors who were really just short term speculative investors trying to make money. They seen the 10x returns on product in short period and said āI want some of that.ā
I am not not ignore the collectors I know that long term they will control the market, short term they wont. We say they can but reality is that when you are the minority you are at the mercy of the majority and if most wish to sell well, it will be a race to see who can liquidate the fastest. If collectors think these products can maintain 10x rates, then they will gladly pay 10x. Thats their choice. The collector is the minority, in my opinion I think more are out to make money and turn profits.
Youāre treating the market as a ticker, thatās not how it works. We have no algos, we have no actual computer systems set up buying and selling thousands of these cards every hour, there is a physical item, with other value aside from monetary. You are trying to treat this as a stock in terms of investment, but its fundamentally different. Sure you can things that resemble bull/bear markets, but volume in pokemon isnāt the same as volume in a ticker. 2million people entering the pokemon market is not the same as 2million people entering a certain ticker. Volume will inherently increase the price typically with momentum in stocks, but in pokemon it all depends on what is being bought, as there are hundreds of thousands of options.
TL;DR - Collecting markets are nothing like stocks, you can draw similarities and they might run together as markets are an indication of economic strength. There is just too much depth to collecting markets and additional variables that affect the market value.
Hey! Thanks for participating and sharing your insight Itās appreciate and helpful for me!
Regarding viewing market as a stock:
I generalize it and look at whatās common. A speculative market is a speculative market, fundamentals apply to all, nothing is immune. Sure, you have some differences between market types but speculative is speculative. And Highly speculative such as pokemon are even more high risk ventures.
You will not maintain same level of growth / price increase with less demand. Otherwise, you would have seen it the entire time the market existed for 30 years. This is a fundamental fact. Loss of demand/volume/interest will turn into decrease in prices. No reason to complicate it any further than it needs to be.
If you have a view, ask the same question and see why it didnāt apply to any of the previous years. The common answer is because its not accurate.
Very very minimal, I have hardly any exposure Only a few cards and I mostly give away lots of product to random people at LGS to make them happy. I love seeing people excited when I hand them their favorite chase card of their life. I am giving away from EX PSA 9 Legendaries soon at a local LGS. Gonna make some people really happy
Not really sure what set or card EX PSA 9 Legendaries is referring to, but this implies youāre not really here to collect, which is your own prerogative. But why should any collector take anything you say at face value when you obviously have a flawed perception of what it means to collect?
Prices may continue to retrace a bit short term but long term this will not matter. In my opinion, the market seems to be stabilizing. I canāt call that it has bottomed but 2018 prices seem very unlikely at this point. The market as a whole has already retraced significantly. Of course, some sectors have done better than others.
I would argue that most of the flippers have already left. As prices have come down, quick flips with no knowledge of what you own are not as easy to perform. Sure, this market has lost some attention as prices have gone down. Many of the people who have left were the toxic individuals that we would read about in the news. Itās a lot more peaceful now.
Many people here both collect and buy items they consider undervalued to resell or keep for future resale. Many here fund their collections completely by doing this.
OP stated this was his opinion. This is my opinion. It doesnāt mean either of us are right or wrong. Time will tell. Itās ok to have opposing viewpoints. I see a lot of potential long term. I see a lot of folks making investments in modern sealed that I donāt think are sound. Holding old, rare and scarce items of historical value is another story altogether.
Whether the market is going down or up, there will always be opportunities. If you pay attention to market trends and do your research on undervalued segments you will do well. I know that I will never time the top or the bottom of the market. I will also never be right on everything I consider undervalued. Just have to keep grinding. The future is bright here in my opinion.
Once again this entire post has nothing to do with collectors philosophy or stance on the hobby/collectible. I have stated this multiple times, this has ZERO to do with collectors. I am referring to the individuals with short term speculative interest.
Also, I am not here to make money and be a investor. I originally joined because I wanted to learn how to buy Japanese DBZ so I didnāt have to pay 4x what they were worth from American sellers.
This entire post is just my opinion, I could be very well be wrong and that is okay.
Hey thanks for participating and sharing some insight
Regarding market segments:
Can you share some info about examples of where individual āassetsā differ greatly from the overall trajectory of the entire collectible pokemon tcg as a whole?
Regarding Pokemeon TCG Maturity:
I never said long term it would not be fine, the entire post is about short term speculative interest.
Regarding Price Retraces:
They could or could not hit 2018 prices, I am seeing 2018; however, I could be wrong. If I am wrong then that is okay.
Regarding Flippers already leaving:
I am still seeing large amounts of people flipping on whatnot, instagram, and eBay and facebook pokemon groups. On the regular.
Regarding the people here in this forum and discord:
I have stated this multiple times the entire purpose of this post is not about anyone in this forum or discord. I am purely talking about the speculative short term investors who bought in looking to make some money on the short term time frame.
Regarding our opinions:
I agree with this, you could be right, I could be wrong and that is totally okay.
Iām struggling to articulate what Iām feeling in my head so apologies if it doesnāt make a lot of sense
What cardstockpile said about flippers I really agree with. Specifically the flippers who saw Pokemon as a financial means to an end with little to no passion for the franchise itself. I just feel like making actual money off Pokemon TCG as an investment requires a genuine, strong level of knowledge and just an obsession with Pokemon in general. The obsession gives you somewhat of an intuition for lack of a better phrase? Flippers who looked at Pokemon during the boom the same way I look at my brokerage account I donāt think are sustainable. I see the people who have made livings off Pokemon and their collections, I see an insane amount of passion for Pokemon and/or trading cards in general. Iām just skeptical that people can find real success without also having a collectorās passion (unless they are loaded or smth). I think the most successful ppl are the ones who have collecting and investing intertwined in a sort of ecosystem if that makes sense
Regarding Quick flip percentages:I could be wrong, maybes more around 50%
(I hope my formatting is correct for quoting you above)
I agree the global economic climate will bring Pokemon card prices down. But i think your opinion on by how much is clouded by how wildly, wildly, wiillldddlllyyy off you are about the above statistic.
Iām in a Facebook sales group that I have been actively monitoring for years. It has grown from 1k to 16k members over the last few years. By your numbers, 8k of those members should be actively hustling and posting sales listings every week. The reality is you have the same few handful selling regularly, a couple hundred selling occassionally, and everyone else is just eager buyers.
Iām in a local whatsapp group for Pokemon fans/players at my local game store. X00 strong, 0 flippers.
Pokerev has a million subscribers of Pokemon fans who like to watch a man open shiny cardboard. Half a million of them are flippers?
So much of your point seems centered on what you saw on some Whatnot streams, I honestly believe that less than 1% of the Pokemon hobby has ever even been on Whatnot.
So, lots of good stuff in there, Context and situational awareness are vital! Youāre not an engineer by chanceā¦?
For some humor: After breeding pokemon in game for years, I still think IV = Individual Values (what are hidden values that determine itās Base stats) and EV = Effort Values (what each PkMn gains as it battles, specific to each species fought, and determine itās final stats)ā¦ ā¦My Ditto with MAX IV all across the boardā¦ Miss that little blob.
Most people here are collectors first, so making an analysis without considering the collecting factors on here is feeding yourself to the bulls.
One comment, I dont see anyone quick flipping anymore. Nobody is paying above MSRP for freshly released modern sealed. All those flippers are out of the hobby.
I could see how youd reach your conclusions if you frequent whatnot and similar apps. It could skew you to believe everyone is new and everyone is into it for the free tendies. If you really believe 50% of pokemon fans are into it for money then yeah, when the money is gone the retracement would be serious.
I suggest taking some time to look into other areas where pokemon collectors chat online. Crypto was built on people looking to 10x their money overnight and is now retraced exactly back to where it was, whereas pokemon is still far above where it was in the same time period with the same growth. There are 0 flippers left in pokemon because you simply cant buy an item and 3x your money overnight but the prices remain strong. I can also see being upset if you paid 2020 prices on stuff that retraced but many people here on e4 knew what would retrace and what would not and are therefore not upset with this retracement at all.
Yeah, Iāve watched a few whatnot streams out of curiosity and what Iāve seen isnāt exactly encouraging lol. The audience there seems mostly comprised of low-capital, uninformed speculators itching to buy as many cheap slabs as they can. That and lots of people with gambling addictions. But I donāt think itās a representative sample of people involved in the hobby.
Itās appreciate and helpful for me!
ā¦My Ditto with MAX IV all across the boardā¦ Miss that little blob.