I’ve never graded or bought graded before, but was wondering if anyone could share knowledge and experience regarding the price points for modern chase cards.
I want to collect the alt arts from SM and SWSH raw, but the raw price for the Lati@s and some of the VMAX alt arts (Umbreon) are ridiculous. Obviously graded will be even more expensive, but at least if it’s already certified as a 10 and encased, then it should be protected with the only value change coming from demand/supply as opposed to environmental, accidental, packaging etc. damage.
Given that they are still in print and therefore the supply continues to increase, should the price continue to drop over time? When will it flatten or reverse and start to go up? Referring to pokedata.io the Umbreon price has continued to decrease (makes sense) but the raw card continues to increase (though a lot of price manipulation is happening on TCGPlayer).
OTOH, the tag team alt arts were just before the boom, so even though the backlog is still being worked through (Champion’s Path ETB Charizard still going up and up every week even though it is the most graded card ever already and has the most 10s ever) it goes up much slower and other alts from SWSH Battle Styles onward aren’t seeing the supply increase that the first year of SWSH sets had/still have since PSA halted/delayed orders throughout the pandemic.
Is there a common or rough guide of what to expect to pay on top of raw? 2x? 3x? Anything below 10 for modern seems to either equal or be below raw prices.
Also what would you say is considered a lot in terms of quantity?
For reference (24th August):
- Charizard V SWSH50 has 34,475 PSA 10s out of 61,250 graded. (56.29%)
- Charizard Illustration Grand Prix JP S 143 has 14,387 PSA 10s out of 17,138 graded. (83.95%)
- Moltres & Zapdos & Articuno GX SM 210 has 7,714 PSA 10s out of 12,283 graded. (62.80%)
- Umbreon VMAX AA has 1,804 PSA 10s out of 2,180 graded. (82.75%)
- Latias & Latios GX AA has 601 PSA 10s out of 942 graded. (63.80%)
- Charizard Base Unlimited has 450 PSA 10s out of 36,093 graded. (1.25%)
- Charizard Base 1e has 121 PSA 10s out of 3,667 graded. (3.30%)
Even though Charizard V is the most all time, it’s still ‘only’ 34,475 or am I severely overestimating the demand for graded cards? Are most graded card collectors vintage collectors? (I know it may not be a good example because it’s a widely available, overproduced promo.)
Reference (13th August):
- Charizard VMAX Champion’s Path RR has 9,651 PSA 10s out of 13,050 graded. (73.95%)
- Charizard V Champion’s Path FA has 8,664 PSA 10s out of 12,607 graded. (68.72%)
- Charizard VMAX Shining Fates has 5,443 PSA 10s out of 6,385 graded. (85.25%)
I guess the lack of graded cards for most modern sets (with the exception of the pandemic fuelled ones) is because of perceived/actual supply in good condition and low raw prices making it less attractive to grade, so it might be hard to say what an oversupply or lack of supply actually is, but would like to hear from people with actual experience in the market.
Thanks!