So i havent seen a public ebay sale on one of these in over a year, or roughly a year. A friend got a $17k offer recently and turned it down. Im curious what people value this box at. Especially after that big TRR box sale for $14.1k. Just seems they never pop up but im not sure of any recent private sales either. As far as i know, noone i have talked to is even thinking about selling their box even with wild offers out there
I can’t imagine this box going for less than the minimum value of a PSA 10 GS Ray (~$19k). That’s pretty much the floor though. From what I understand, the sealed product for this set in particular is a total pain to find. If I had the cash, I’d probably start around $22k and see where it goes from there. I’d expect a really mint box to fetch more.
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Yea i actually forgot the psa 10 ray went for that price. I was excited to see the trr box go for that much. Totally out of my grasp now but i think the cards and packaging of that set are amazing
I have a pretty minty one that’s been occupying a hard acrylic case since I bought it and like you, have not seen one for sale since.
With the PSA 10 Ray selling for 19k -20k, I probably wouldn’t even seriously consider selling mine unless the offer was some where in 28-30k range. That’s just me however. I value the scarcity and nostalgia over the monetary value for the time being.
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I’m not saying the box isn’t worth $28k+, but it’s tough to tie the value of it to Rayquaza given that it takes like 7-8 boxes to pull one on avg. and even pack fresh it usually doesn’t grade a 10. I think the value of the box is basically entirely divorced from the EV at this point, and is solely based on how rare it is.
I do also think the box has to be worth less than $28k. If a TRR box is $14k, then I would doubt that a Deoxys box is over $20k. Regardless, it’s a tough box to value since the bid-ask spread is so massive.
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I don’t know if I would say the value of the box is separate from Rayquaza. Part of the mystique of owning sealed product is that it might contain that chase card in gem mint condition…even if that probability is absurdly low. That probability carries an emotional (and monetary) value that should reflect in the final price in addition to the inherent scarcity of the box.
Given the difficulties of finding an ex Deoxys box at all, I think a lot of it boils down to what it takes to acquire one right now. My guess would be some pretty generous offers above $17k.
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The value of the box is related to ray but not dependent on it. Look at zandgemporium.com. He analyzes every box from base to expedition and the expected value of each is at 20% less than the price of the box. If you are lucky and do get a ray from the box, don’t forget that it is not the only pull you are going to get. You should still get 3-4 ex cards plus all of the reverses are now worth something for people completing sets. I’d say this box is at least $25k.
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I think the only way to get an idea of the ‘real’ market value for something like this is to throw it on ebay for like 50k and ask for people to send you offers. I think it also depends heavily on how motivated the buyer is to sell.
If I personally had one, I wouldn’t sell it for less than 30k (might be a bit high, but whatever). But that’s because I wouldn’t want to sell it and, once it’s gone, I’m probably not getting another one, so there has to be a big incentive. If I were looking for a buyer, that figure probably comes down a bit.
Mabye that’s ‘irrational’, but I think there is a value to the buyer’s resistance to sell.
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I have asked a few friends if they would sell their boxes and none even considered it. The most common reasoning is simply, because it is their favorite box. Plus if i sold a box for something like $20k+ I couldnt imagine being able to own it again.
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I gave a valuation for this box about 6 weeks ago. The assessment was $20k minimum. While you can push for 25-28k, there was no market data or comps to support it. So the fair value was 20k with strong upside.
Acquisition is the most difficult part. Finding a seller at 20k would be tough.
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