I can’t imagine that someone is buying Evolving Skies at $330 and hoping to crack it for profit. The expected value just isn’t there. I think most of these sales are modern speculators selling to other modern speculators.
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$330 for a chance to get a $900 card ain’t bad, if you get that card everything else is cherry on top.
The one thing I’ve consistently seen in this hobby is if the arbitrage numbers are in the green or even a thought/possibility, there is someone is doing it. Specially with all the extra money that can be made on the side by opening online, Aspiring “Internet personalities” write off poor ROI on the opening as cost of doing business and getting there name out there with the current hype.
The bull market that never ends, lol. I’m really quite amazed how it continues to climb like this, and how fast it got to these prices overall. I was thinking it’d take at least 3-5 years to go this high considering the state of the overall economies, but now I’m starting to think it’ll hit $500+ sooner than later. Even with a small reprint, the prices will probably barely budge. If the demand is there, these sellers and stores just really won’t have to negotiate down at all, it seems.
When I compare it to one of my longest running stock investments, I’m up 400% on that since 2014 as of last week. With my Evolving Skies box, I’ve already made over 200% since I bought it in January 2022. Pretty crazy.
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I think a lot of people wondered if Crown Zenith would dethrone Evolving Skies as the most desirable ultramodern product… I don’t think it has yet.
Pokémon had been in a slump for awhile… if you go back through posts I. 2021 it was all gloom and doom. WOTC is still pretty low compared to 2020 prices.
Could be just breaking into a bear market tbh
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It’s actually horrible if you know about pull rates which I’d wager a minimum of 80% of these people don’t know about.
@Dyl in the long run CZ will dethrone ES for sure but definitely not now when prices are still dropping and there are still 4 months of releases to go before reprints.
I am looking forward to seeing how it all plays out. I think Crown Zenith has great potential to be the top set of SW/SH.
That’s almost a safe bet. Even tho is hard to really tell who is the target audience, for a set that is barely a year old going this strong would only make sense for speculators on modern.
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This is kinda like lottery mentality; $10 for a chance to get 20 million doesnt sound bad, but people tend to be overly optimistic and struggle to conceptualize just how unlikely it really is. Not to mention, Umbreon is not a $900 card rn. Either way, that card is priced high because its difficult to pull, so youre really gaming odds that are already known to be poor.
Anyway, i opened 1 etb costco pack for fun and managed to pull the vmax ice rider TG from astral radiance and the alt art dragonite 
bad example
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I havent really been following this too closely but do people really think CZ will dethrone ES? I dont get that vibe much at all. CZ is fun to open and reminds me of hidden fates but it seems way way too easy to pull good cards to hold as much value
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What determines “the best” set?
- Artwork?
- Supply size?
- Narrative cohesion?
- Creative mechanics?
- Pull rates of chase cards?
- Level of fun to crack packs?
- Inclusion of popular Pokemon?
- Price of chase cards on the secondary market?
- Price of booster boxes/product on the secondary market?
I think both sets are excellent in many of these domains.
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Was just talking about value, I didnt say best set
Ah, I see. I was referencing the likability of the set when I suggested that Crown Zenith might dethrone Evolving Skies, certainly not price.
The GG seems to just be trainer gallery to me, prices are nothing wild for most of them. And just 1 alt in the main set. Also while the arts are cool the set is not nearly as concentrated on fan favorite pokemon like ES was. I think people are just happy they are getting “alt like” arts with the pull rates of trainer gallery cards in the past
Maybe it is an unpopular opinion, but I am happy that the Crown Zenith cards are cheap and easily obtainable. Beautiful art that isn’t gatekept behind a huge paywall and horrendous pull rates is 10/10 in my book.
Agreed that Evolving Skies had more fan favorites and will hold its price better on the secondary market.
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My point was just that i think its impossible to dethrone a set with fan favs, high prices and relative scarcity with a set does not really have those things to the same level. I didnt know people were suggesting this so i was suprised. It was in the market watch thread and not the art thread so i didnt think that CZ has anywhere near the same market appeal that ES has
I do wish it was as good though. I mostly missed out on evolving skies
Makes sense. I think we will have to wait and see what happens. Rumor has it that Pokemon won’t send out additional waves until Q2 2023 (April), so the next few months will be long for those itching to crack packs.
I think thats a good idea. Get everybody hungry for more then when they are ready msrp is up and nobody cares cause product is back. Thats one thing about reprints, pokemon cant reprint es and sell it for 300, so they may as well just print whatever they can get the most money from and thats new msrp SV sets
I think its difficult because VSTAR Universe is very easily a better set than Evo Skies imo. There are multiple Charizards, Mewtwo, Mew, lucario, suicune, pikachu, etc. In terms of fan favourites, as well as multiple [Region] Friends cards.
Idk about CZ, but with it being a special set and brand new, its difficult to compare it to ES’s more established price points and 2+ years of supply shenanigans.
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