My point is that supply would be sufficient for a normal (pre-covid? 1 box to open here and there?) consumption of these goods. Like you said (and I agree), demand is demand and I’m definitely not denying that it’s strong and still present.
The shift in consumer behavior to me is undeniable though, and it’s at least part of the problem. Even if a hypothetical 25% of some product (and we don’t know, can be even more) has been tucked away, isn’t that a huge number?
You’re also assuming that people are looking for a relative quick dump which isn’t always the case. Things aren’t that linear anymore.
Intermediaries, whales, wannabe LLCs and similar, when they exist, are obviously incentivized to create bottlenecks.
The narrative of easy money is also powerful enough to fuel demand on its own, which further incentivizes hype, fomo or investing/hoarding, in a positive loop. That reinforces the idea of Pokemon products as profitable assets, reducing the probability of being opened down the line.
At some point prices may correct yeah, but the damage has already been done, and the experience of many tainted.
does Japan not print traditional chinese too? I know that korea prints their own stuff, I don’t know the details of that. And I was also under the assumption japan prints the other S.E.A. languages like Indonesian. And on that note, who prints for the european market, and who prints for the brazil portugese? And now also the south/central america version of spanish? I think the rapid increase of expanding languages could maybe be having a supply impact, so I just don’t know where that could be throttling english printing for us. Interesting just aside that in the language expansion, the slavic languages that once had some printing, languish.
Will try not to belabour the point that’s already been echoed by many. I agree that scalpers are not inherently the problem and are a symptom of the environment created by TPCi and the greater market in 2025.
However, there’s something to be said about the justification for TPCi printing more or printing less. They would have an internal reason for not printing more. It could be a pipeline/logistics reason, or due to timelines, or it could be earned media marketing (because you’re all seeing and watching the nonsense peddled on Insta/TikTok after all, as are many others). It could also be long-term considerations as cited by Milhouse. It sucks the consequences are passed onto the consumers, but they’re a business at the end of the day.
I also feel that many consumers in Pokemon possess an ingrained sense of entitlement. This doesn’t just relate to cards, but can be applicable to the video games or other media released by the company.
well, ultimately you got to speak with your wallet. Mine has been shut, but I also can’t casually pick up cards anymore anyhow. So it doesn’t even matter. Its sweaty people and botting that mainly. People don’t like to admit it maybe, but the ease of technology, botting is easier than ever. And it only takes a few. There are logistics to why its so easy to buy out a place. So there is that aspect, but again, this is a logistics issue that Pokemon company could change to alleviate. Retailers could too on their own. Even through changing where the supply of cards goes could lessen the sting.
Think of it. Literally anyone, anywhere can get in line to buy from a retailer’s website. Any time, anywhere. However, if hypothetically, they sold nothing online, and stocked physical stores, then people are limited to when they are off work(yes I know that its a lot of unemployed behavior, but stick with me here). They are limited by when the stores open and close. The inventory is paced by who can make it where and when. But add on to this that more stores are stocking cards, this thins the supply. So if we stop allowing dicks sporting goods, big 5, Ace hardware etc. to get cards, then a larger chunk goes elsewhere. And really, lets go further. What if all of that was cut off, all online retail of any sort. All big box stores. Now it all only goes to physical games stores. Further than that, get really extreme. Physical game stores that actually have play space and times to play pokemon. When you concentrate the places, make physical locations a limiting human factor, you can see how that could alleviate the mental FOMO. When you see a store is only getting like half a booster case, that freaks you out. When you see they are getting 10 pallets you don’t worry. Th perceived scarcity of products during any restock anywhere is a contributing factor to this. Spreading things too thin is I think underestimated here. Again something pokemon company could change. Heaven knows I’m not fighting to buy a single 3 pack blister for MSRP for any mid sets.
Gonna open here with the obligatory “scalpers suck” (if anyone’s cleaning out shelves and getting into literal fist fights in a Costco or Walmart over cardboard - screw every single one of ‘em).
But IMO - scalpers are way more a symptom than they are a root cause. If most scalpers disappeared tomorrow, the demand is still strong enough to clean shelves out. (supply would still be constrained). If anything - you’d probably see fewer secondary options (though there’d still be local hobby shops and independent sellers).
19% of adults having bought Pokemon cards in the last six months is wild - my stance is that scalpers are exploiting a gap that exists whether they’re there or not.
Demand is higher nowadays for people opening product as well. Most people I know that rip aren’t just opening one box if given the option. They’re going to open multiple. With a burgeoning market, you would have to exponentially increase print runs to meet modern demand compared to 2015-2019, regardless of the reason for that demand.
I don’t really understand the reference to pre-covid either as we aren’t in that era and won’t be returning to that era. I’m not saying that as a critique, I’m more curious if there’s something I’m missing
Not everyone is looking for a quick dump, but there are those who are leveraged and have to move the product. They know they can because the secondary market demand is disproportionate to the supply. There are many horror stories around LGS with this
Consumer behaviour is not a problem- we can consume however we wish. No consumer has a greater right than another simply because they have a different intent.
People keep referring to whales in this thread but if your issue with them is they’re buying too much product (again, they’re entitled to do with the product as they please) then I don’t know what to say… Again, they’re entitled to purchase product as much as any other person. They have the luxury of a higher spending capacity and they’re taking advantage of that. It sucks that it affects others looking to buy, but that’s exactly the point of many others here – TPC can print more to circumvent this issue. However, just because some parties have money to spend that others don’t does not make them the problem
I may be wrong, but I think the bottleneck discussion plays quite heavily into conspiracy and is giving an unreasonable amount of credit to these entities. This would require an unholy level of collusion to truly manipulate the market given its magnitude, such that I would not believe it. Of course suppliers and/or sellers are not going to drop pallets of boxes all at once, that’s simply practicing good business. It’ll be absorbed just as quickly anyway
If those holding stopped holding, said product will just sell-out quicker and you’re eventually left with the same problem we’re experiencing anyway – except now no product is available instead of it being drip-feed. If all product is opened then the number of cards becomes finite, and the boxes either become impossible or impossibly-expensive just as Pfm has said above. The fact that people aren’t ripping WOTC boxes when they exchange hands is a good thing for those still looking to acquire them. If everyone who bought a WOTC box now ripped them immediately prices would skyrocket (more than they already have)
I can understand the frustration people have around not being able to pick things up for MSRP and not wanting to partake in buying above. Though, I think the market is so massive and the demand so significant that speaking with one’s wallet ultimately won’t achieve anything – there are enough buyers to absorb the supply still. Again I don’t disagree with people’s frustration, I just think most people have it misplaced. I don’t personally fault consumers, regardless of their intent, I think it stems back to the market conditions created by TPC. I think retailers, especially smaller ones, really would struggle to do much though as many are trying to stay afloat and are beholden to TPC. However, I can’t speak on retailer dynamics in the US being an AU resident
And I think there’s a novelty to what you’re suggesting honestly with limiting to physical distribution. I’d actually liken it to game released back in the mid-late noughties of the 2000s. Midnight releases and things of that ilk. With that said, I think it’s one of those can’t get the genie back in the bottle scenarios. I also think there’s a significant consideration of logistics once again. Online distribution is cheaper than physical distribution. Delivery/shipment, inventory space/capacity, fulfilment (on orders).. among other considerations all cost money and labour. Expecting companies (in this case, once of the greediest in pop culture) to forfeit money is kind of unfathomable. I think the biggest factor of those I mentioned with be physical storage space. Card stores with space to play don’t typically have an abundance of space to work with (at least in Australia). I can’t see them being the sole distributor of product in any universe let alone this one
FOMO is definitely real though and I agree that anyone who says otherwise is coping or lying
This post touches on what I would say as a response. The secondary market is not a static thing. This is not 1999 where kids are buying one or two packs with their limited allowance, we are talking about adult money. If the X% of stashed away supply was instead on walmart shelves and/or secondary market prices are lower, people [ie. pack openers] would buy more quantity and you’d end up with the same problem.
If you don’t agree with this, do a simple thought experiment. If the Pokemon Center online had no limit, do you think the average number of items in a cart would go up or stay the same?
Yes, demand is higher because people are also opening more boxes. I referenced “pre-covid” as an example of normal consumption rate, which had been sustainable for ages. Like I said in my first post, people nowadays are bulimic in their approach to the hobby, and removing part of products as sealed assets only exacerbates this.
There’s no real solution for this (cause no hope for a mature consumer base), except maybe changing the way products are distributed, enforcing limits or experimenting with pull rates.
If those are leveraged you’re kinda confirming that there are persons or entities consuming/moving product as much as hundreds of casuals. What’s the point of their presence? They surely aren’t helping fix the “imbalances” in supply & demand.
You can consume as you wish while this is allowed. However don’t be surprised if this isn’t sustainable long term, and the modern hobby experience looks like poop for the average user.
And if I have to choose, I’d give the bread to the one who wants to eat, not the one who wants to use it as a silly hat.
Maybe bottlenecks are a conspiracy, but they’re surely in the same league as “evil TPC that could just press a button, and print sets 10x more”
Also, no huge amount of collusion is needed, just common sense: sell slow = more money
Comparing a WOTC and a modern box doesn’t make sense imho in this case. One is a genuine collectible which experienced attrition, the other is artificially removed from the market. People simply enjoyed Wotc boxes the way they were supposed to be, and stonkers/hoarders were a rare exception. So sorry, I don’t think these individuals are doing any favor to the hobby.
yup exactly what I mean, I haven’t bought jack squat in over a year and its just a drop in the ocean.
My illustration is to reveal a feeling of scarcity people get that makes the situation even worse in the FOMO mentality. The current system seems to benefit them by spreading it out too thin. This was the situation in the pokemania days too. Too many places selling cards when supply is very strained already. Play stores, which are the life blood of any TCG, are being absolutely given the short end of the stick in this scenario. They pay for more empty real estate they can’t use for product storage, and get nothing of benefit from it. Its really sad.
Hoping to promote a healthy debate here (as with all internet messages where tone of voice can’t be conveyed - please try to assume positive tone here)
You’re calling those boxes “genuine collectibles that experienced attrition” while modern sealed is “artificially removed.” - but isn’t the only reason you can buy a base set box in 2025 is because someone in 1999 chose not to open it? That person made the exact same choice modern holders are making (are we not just retroactively blessing their decision because time passed?)
On the bread metaphor - “Give bread to the one who wants to eat”.. this can be chalked up to your preference for what the product should be used for, framed as a principle. Someone who buys sealed and holds it paid the same money, stood in the same line, has the same right to the product. We can assign moral weight to intent, but no market works that way. Demand is demand.
Last point - on your mention of “leveraged and has to move product” describes someone adding supply to the secondary market, not removing it, which is the opposite of hoarding. You’re conflating flippers (who increase liquidity) with long term holders (who reduce it). They have opposite effects.
I’m not taking a position on whether this is good or bad, just trying to apply consistent logic to your points (I totally get where you’re coming from).
How many booster boxes per person is ‘sustainable’ when chase cards need dozens of booster boxes per person to potentially pull them?
It gets expensive quick but as long as there are people with the money to attempt it, the imbalance will never sort itself out. The chase cards are too difficult to pull, but that is the business model of all TCGs.
I’ve mentioned before but removing the shrink wrap, something JP already does, should make an impact. People here like to deny it because it makes it harder to sell in the future, but sealed collections of booster boxes should never have been a thing. If you like the art so much, it is the same whether it is sealed or opened.
I just wanna say that you’ve managed to articulate what I’ve been trying to say pretty well.
I do believe that online ordering and the thinly-spread supply in-store is amplifying people’s mental FOMO which makes the situation even worse.
Obviously, there are many factors that put the hobby into the situation it is in now but I do feel pretty strongly about online ordering’s role in things and that it is probably being under-recognized (whereas, going back to this thread’s original proposition, I think true “scalping” is over-emphasized as its very easy to make someone a scapegoat if they are already disliked by the community).
Being unable to purchase modern product at MSRP does not ruin Pokemon for me. There are so many ways to enjoy the hobby beyond opening modern product.
It’s sad that consumers can’t access what they want to purchase (especially with the holidays coming up), but that’s solely because supply has not efficiently met demand.
Scalpers don’t ruin the hobby, but degenerate behavior does. Unfortunately, a lot of scalpers behave poorly to make a quick buck.
This is pretty much on the point of what is important regarding supply of things. The problem is that when we were kids, a set had 100 cards, 3 levels of rarity, with all the holos being equal rarity. And they were a good chase and good fun, because some kids wanted a charizard or blastoise over the others so it still felt rare. But everyone who persevered could get one for the most part.
Set construction these days is garbage. I disagree with others saying get rid of junk because I’m a filfty loves his dirt cheap commons casual, but it’s not necessarily get rid of the junk — it’s don’t make 50 artificial rarities with the ultimate chase being 1 in 10,000 chance. That’s just stupid. Like really stupid.
While I disagree with your notion of keeping sealed boxes, I just want to point out that that is the farthest thing from the reason people like to keep them sealed. I know when I had a few sealed wotc boxes back in the day it was the feverish feeling like I had piece of that magic yet-to-be-magicked. An excitement that one day (that ultimately came) I could relive that feeling. I feel like the number 1 reason collectors have for keeping something sealed besides potentially selling it because a value threshold was reached, is the idea they can have that experience again or sit there relishing the thought that they can. It’s fun.
Let’s be honest, we aren’t talking about 1-2 boxes sporadically stashed away, but an amount and a behavior so widespread that (in my opinion) affects products availability. Common sense tells me that bread should be eaten, but even consider it merely a preference, the only one that matters here is TPC.
They could decide it’s in their best interest to make sure that cards reach collectors, players, kids and act accordingly. I certainly wouldn’t be mad if they start removing the shrink-wrap or somehow make almost impossible to keep products sealed.
As an external observer of the modern market (kinda), I just don’t see how this stonk, hoard and invest mentality makes the hobby a more enjoyable place.
I personally don’t care about sealed Wotc, but again it’s so different. Those were sporadically kept untouched (often frankly forgotten in some warehouse or basement), while modern boxes are potentially everywhere. That few people want to collect sealed is to be expected, but the sheer amount is absurd. I’m guessing numbers but, 1% (to be super generous) for WOTC vs 25% for modern?
It’s hard to take seriously any preservationist argument.
The ideal flipper probably is someone who moves items from a low-demand point A to a high-demand point B: this makes sense for example for rare cards found at a garage sale, then flipped on ebay.
When it comes to modern boxes though, there’s no point in having intermediaries between TPC, the retailers and the customers: other entities artificially placed in this path are essentially leeches, definitely not there to fix the market but to create choke points.
And they surely aren’t adding supply, because they aren’t printing cards.
Honestly I think we’re closer than it seems - my callout is on some internal contradictions in how you’re framing things.
I also get why the WOTC vs modern comparison feels different intuitively. But when we say “1% vs 25%” - this is driven by a feeling you have about which sealed holders deserve sympathy. The guy in 1999 was speculating same as today. We just retroactively call it preservation because it worked out.
And on flippers creating choke points while also moving product: those can’t both be true at the same time. A choke point is something that holds and restricts. Someone listing on the secondary market is doing the opposite. You might hate that they exist, or hate what they charge, which areboth totally fair. But the product they’re selling is product someone can buy. That’s access by definition, and not restriction.
One could make this argument for most consumer goods these days - just sell direct-to-consumer for items with an established consumer base. Companies like Amazon are simply middlemen holding product and scraping off the transaction.
I do wonder how TPCi has not created some subscription service where one gets packs or an ETB or whatever in the mail every month or so. It would surely sell well and all of the profits beyond shipping-and-handling would go straight to them. It would also help with capacity and demand forecasting.
