Caculating Championship League 2024 Promo Print Runs

Hi friends,

I’ve recently been considering buying Zapdos 108/sv-p. It’s a tourney promo that was handed out at the Championship League 2024 held in Yokohama Sept. 9th, 2023. It’s a limited promo but I am trying to figure out exactly how short-printed it is. I believe it’s possible to get a decent estimate of how many cards were handed out using public sources.
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Referring to the archived tourney page we know

  • the max number of participants
  • the tourney format
  • the threshold needed to be rewarded a zapdos promo

Requirement to Earn Zapdos

  • Junior league - win four or more games in swiss pools
  • Senior & masters leagues - win five or more games in swiss pools

Participants

League Max # of participants
Junior league 650
Senior league 800
Masters league 3200
Total participant cap 4650

Tourney format
The tourney was swiss with a maximum of nine rounds for each pool. A win counts for 3 points, a loss for 0. Draws result in a loss for each player. I used this swiss calculator to estimate the number of participants who won enough games.

Results
Based on the above information I estimate promo distribution numbers to be as follows:

League # of promos distributed
Junior league 485
Senior league 400
Masters league 1600
Total 2485

Remaining Questions

  • Do these numbers look right? It’s my first time calculating swiss pool average win distributions. If I had to guess I would say this is a liberal estimation because it is likely there were some no-shows. The event was re-scheduled from its original date after a typhoon watch was issued.

  • How can we calculate for players who lost out of the pool? Players who lost a total of 3 games were out of the pools.

  • Is there a source with the exact number of participants for each league?

Sources
Tourney Rules Page

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