Two questions.
-
If this pack has a Holo you’ll pay $🤔? (This amount is paid in advance) If it doesn’t have a Holo you’ll pay $🤔? (Balance is refunded if no Holo) Fill in those dollar amounts.
-
Is there any merit to this strategy?
1 Like
3 options:
Yea mate, this pack did not have a holo (holds a lovely pack fresh mewtwo)
Uhhh, but I dont want to open the pack, I want to keep it for my sealed collection and want to keep it unweighed.
Or it works, could be an option for some people but definitely not for the masses.
@thymeee, nice answers to a question I never asked. Re-read #1 above.
1 Like
aha, seems I answered question 2. I would not know the dollar amounts, I dont follow base that much.
Why not just weigh the pack and let them know the weight?
This seems like pack weighing but with extra steps
Also, someone could just lie and say they recieved a non-holo, even if you asked them to stream the opening it would be easy to fake.
(1) predominantly packs have been sold / boxes have been broken in a way where either:
(a) it’s an unweighed break are a price that people are comfortable paying usually inferior to prices of (b)
(b) selling heavies for a premium and lights at a discount
—> the sensible answer to the first question would probably have to be, somewhere in between both the prices of (a) and (b). In the event you don’t end up with a heavy pack, so a holo, you get reimbursed the balance and keep the contents of the light pack. In the event you do end up with a heavy pack and a holo, you still paid a discount than paying the “insurance” premium of a guaranteed holo.
(2) absolutely no merit to this, whoever is selling the packs loses / gets the short end of the stick… UNLESS somehow people buying these packs pay a premium over what the heavy price would be, which just wouldn’t make any sense.
Let’s check with an example. Let’s assume a box is 500k today if someone was going to break it and sell packs.
—> unweighed box break = 500k/36 = 13,888.89$/pack
—> heavies and lights:
500,000.00$ = 12(3x) + 24(x)
500,000.00$ = 60x
x = 8,333,33$ = (light pack)
3x = 25,000.00$ = (heavy pack)
—> 25k - 8,333k = 16,667.00$ (difference you’ll risk having to refund)
For you to end up more profitable than the (EV) of the desired amount mentioned above / current agreed market price (so 500k), buyer’s need time accept to pay a premium over what the market rate or agreed rate would be for a light and a heavy pack which doesn’t make sense. This is a legit example of a zero sum gain.
There isn’t a way to price this that would make sense to the buyer and there wouldn’t be any advantage to the seller either. It’s basically asking how much are you willing to pay in the event of a heavy pack with the insurance discount that in the event you get a light pack you will pay less than market price?
UNLESS… and I think maybe this is what you were getting at (being a Vegas native and all) if we treated this like a legit game of chance, and gambling, how much are willing to get screwed by and overpay for a light pack (which given the market of today and the strength of the demand and prices isn’t that unattractive anymore) at the risk of getting a heavy pack, or a holo for a discount 
Damn… I kinda like it. You as a seller make the exact amount and a buyer has the 1/12 chance at getting a heavy pack for less than market value!
… very interesting concept lol
**let’s assume the expected value of a heavy pack is 3x as much as a light pack**
So 11k and 22.3k let’s say…
Or 15k and 18k etc.
Just doesn’t seem like it makes much sense
- 20-25k — 7-8k
- depends on the person you´re selling it to - in these situations one can always come up with some sort of scam if he really wants to - I´d do something like that in person only tbh, except I 100% trust the guy.
^^ m’y weighed numbers weren’t too far off 25k and 8.3k
My thoughts, I didn’t read all responses so maybe it’s covered.
I would say, that as a buyer. I would be unwilling to pay a premium for the pack, if a holo is pulled. Here is why. Let’s say I’m buying a 1st ed base pack, if I’m looking at weighed packs. I’m either paying a premium for guaranteed holo or I’m paying less for a light.
If I’m gambling, I don’t want to pay full freight for a lotto pack, in the event I pull one. I’d rather buy a guaranteed holo and save the multi thousand dollar hit of a light pack.
I would say charge a more than what a light pack sells for, if it’s in fact light, because there is a chance of holo. And less than the market price of a guaranteed heavy.
I would also only do this with someone that is trusted, or in my presence or on livestream. I would also mark the pack if that was the case. To ensure it’s actually the exact same pack sold.
Watched someone on IG do exactly this yesterday (skyridge packs, refund if no holo). I think there is absolutely merit to it. I don’t have what my own prices would be atm though
1 Like
Ohh this is a good idea. Seems like it would solve any potential headaches as well. Outside of someone man handling someone else’s cards into a penny sleeve like some of these videos lol